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Poster: micah6vs8 Date: Sep 2, 2010 9:42am
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: Dick's favorite Scarlet>Fire (TDIH)

CH , any surfing plans for tomorrow ?

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Poster: Cliff Hucker Date: Sep 2, 2010 10:25am
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: Dick's favorite Scarlet>Fire (TDIH)

Nobody will be surfing around here tomorrow. It's already blown out here now...


ANZ350-030330-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
1204 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010

TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT


THIS AFTERNOON
SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 8 FT...MAINLY IN A SE SWELL. RUGH CONDITIONS AROUND INLETS.

TONIGHT
S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 9 TO 10 FT...MAINLY IN A SE SWELL. RUGH CONDITIONS AROUND INLETS.

FRI
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. E WINDS 25 TO 30 KT...
BECOMING NE 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS AROUND 11 FT...BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS LIKELY LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

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Poster: lobster12 Date: Sep 2, 2010 10:40am
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: Dick's favorite Scarlet>Fire (TDIH)

Cliff,

How is old Montauk these days? I was back there a few years ago and someone said that Gosman's was being sold? Did that happen?

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Poster: Cliff Hucker Date: Sep 2, 2010 11:19am
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: Dick's favorite Scarlet>Fire (TDIH)

Montauk is still here. Though Earl may come close tomorrow, Montauk will still be here Saturday as well.

I heard the the rumors a couple years ago, but Gosman's has not been sold. If you have $50mm you can still buy the place...

Any plans to come out to Eastern Long Island again?

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Poster: lobster12 Date: Sep 2, 2010 11:53am
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: Dick's favorite Scarlet>Fire (TDIH)

Good to hear. I'd hadn't been back there in 20 years or so when I went a few years ago. Glad to see they kept out development as much as possible. All those hotels down by the circle are still the same as when I was a kid. I don't think we are going to hit Montauk next summer but I'm pitching it for the following year. I know it's ways away but if it happens I'll let you know and we can meet at the melody or that roadsie place on old montauk hwy for a drink. My father said there was this place he used to hit when he was younger over by White's dept store but the name slips me. Ahhh.memory lane.

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Poster: Cliff Hucker Date: Sep 2, 2010 1:24pm
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: Dick's favorite Scarlet>Fire (TDIH)

Shagwong Tavern?

Not the Memory Motel...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Memory-motel.jpg

See you for beer in 2012 :)

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Poster: lobster12 Date: Sep 2, 2010 1:37pm
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: Dick's favorite Scarlet>Fire (TDIH)

First off my typo on Memory. And yes the shagwong. My father wanted me and my brother to duck in there before we left. Didn't have time to squeeze it in. Last time I was there this guy's kid ran over and started playing with my boys on the sand. Nice guy and he starts talking about how his wife is nagging him and he's in the doghouse. He tells me he's going to happy hour at the roadside bar on the highway so me and my brother meet him there since it was out last night. Great guy and we're having a few drinks. he pulls out a one hitter and he's getting mellow. I ask him how it's going with his wife and he points to the parking lot and says, "the grumpy pain in the ass is sitting in the car." Sure enough she's in the car, arms folded and not loving life. The guy drives to happy hour and leaves his wife in the car. I almost fell off my chair laughing.

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Poster: Mandojammer Date: Sep 2, 2010 10:00am
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: Dick's favorite Scarlet>Fire (TDIH)

13 footers coming ashore on south OBX as I type. 6-8 here in Va Beach.

Real 13 footers, not the 13 footers most people measure from crest to trough - which would 'only' be 6.5 footers.

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Poster: micah6vs8 Date: Sep 2, 2010 10:09am
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: Dick's favorite Scarlet>Fire (TDIH)

Mando , spot gold price today ( I use it as an indicator of confidence , or lack thereof ) is $1250 .
Confidence abounds !

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Poster: bluedevil Date: Sep 2, 2010 10:54am
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: Dick's favorite Scarlet>Fire (TDIH)

Our leader has spoken; moved, no doubt, by the power of holding Washington's first inaugural address:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,600583,00.html

I must leave to go prepare for my upcoming trial. Apparently I have a trial starting October 5th as well as a new name.

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Poster: Old_NJ_Head_Zimmer Date: Sep 2, 2010 11:52am
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: Dick's favorite Scarlet>Fire (TDIH)

micah,

Can you elaborate on your spot gold confidence indicator - confidence or lack of what?

Inflation? Investor confidence? Commodoties?

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Poster: unclejohn52 Date: Sep 2, 2010 12:21pm
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: Dick's favorite Scarlet>Fire (TDIH)

methinks micah was being sarcastic, or better, ironic. What better irony than the flim-flam man scaring people into fleeing to gold in his own self-interest.

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Poster: micah6vs8 Date: Sep 2, 2010 1:06pm
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: Dick's favorite Scarlet>Fire (TDIH)

I always wonder what people would do with their gold if their fear of the collapse of the economy came true . Eat it ? How would they barter it ? Here , get working on that axe cause you only get an ounce for that bread . Bartering would most likely be the early replacement economically .
I do look at gold as an indicator of investors confidence in a state's ability to pay back their bondholders . As a hedge against inflation , gold has been a poor performer . Printing trillions of dollars is also a poor performer . Not reducing the state's spending is also a poor performer .
Did you see German , Chinese ( if reliable ) and Indian economic numbers for August ? They will be revised , but I would rather have their growth rates and unemployment numbers then our current ones .

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Poster: Old_NJ_Head_Zimmer Date: Sep 2, 2010 4:24pm
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: Dick's favorite Scarlet>Fire (TDIH)

I don't believe gold can be a confidence indicator of a countries ability to pay bondholders simply because it is a global commodity. Prices can and are effected by uncountable inputs worldwide. I do believe its price is mostly driven by worldwide fear of expected inflation / deflation or currency quality flights but also a large part by colusion and manipulation. (Stock and bond markets as well)

Most countries economic numbers are falsified - especially China (The big global lie right now) which is why they can never be believed.

Although US economic numbers are dismal - at least they are open to public scrutiny and private analysis.

"Any way you look at it you lose" in this economy and the continual budget deficit spending will have us all bartering soon.

Question is - when we say a particular Dead show is worth its weight in gold - who's going to put up the OZs for that old Maxell in lew of a loaf of bread?

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Poster: micah6vs8 Date: Sep 2, 2010 4:53pm
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: Dick's favorite Scarlet>Fire (TDIH)

I think we agree . While gold was The indicator at one time , that is no longer the case . I think it still has its place as a major indicator . " Worldwide fear " will drive the hoarders ( today China , India ) and the price .
I wonder in $ , how much debt China has ? Many of those state run , heavy industrial enterprises still exist ( with cradle to grave benefits for the state workers ) , turning out steal ( for example ) , at a price in which they only have a domestic market . Buying it at a price where the state loses even more $ , buying it twice . Let's see how the yaun does unfettered , to test China's real economic strength .

Great ending . It will be the electricity to listen to it that will be a hard bargain . Dead vs. Bread . I hope not .
Don't we all .

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Poster: Old_NJ_Head_Zimmer Date: Sep 2, 2010 5:26pm
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: Dick's favorite Scarlet>Fire (TDIH)

Agreed - Except I do not believe China or India have "Cradle to grave" benefits - basically there are no benefits in the sense we know them (medical, retirement pension, social security etc..) The Proletariat are "on their own" and hope family can take care of family. (If your alowed by the government to have kids)

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Poster: micah6vs8 Date: Sep 2, 2010 5:31pm
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: Dick's favorite Scarlet>Fire (TDIH)

They have totally shut down all those factories ? They are ( were ) a huge drain on their economy .
Their govt. is in fear mode now . I follow the persecution ( like jail , hard labor , solitary confinement ) of Chinese Christians . Serious crack down this summer . Don't have a Bible unless govt approved . Or read it . Or talk about it .

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Poster: Mandojammer Date: Sep 8, 2010 3:03pm
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: Dick's favorite Scarlet>Fire (TDIH)

And here I am thinking that gold is neither a good investment OR a hedge against inflation/deflation/stagflation/flatulation.....

It is however a means to preserve wealth as it has never had a value of zero - which cannot be said for any fiat currency no matter how loudly the government behind it "backs" its (fiat currency) value.

I have gold, I have ammo, I have 3 years of food stored. If we don't have things figured out in three years and I can't listen to my Dead on my iPod because there is no electricity then I will have to go hunting.